行业观察 看面板业下一个春天何时再来

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<P style="MARGIN-LEFT: 16&#46;5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10&#46;5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%"><FONT face=宋体>随着近期<SPAN lang=EN-US>TFT LCD</SPAN>面板厂商进入财报周，业者第三季度营运成绩将陆续揭晓，也立即吸引了业界人士的目光，毕竟面板景气的春天究竟何时会来，从年初喊到都快到年尾了，迄今仍未有定论。因此厂商第三季度表现如何，是否可顺利走出上半年的亏损窘境，抑或能否一举挽救获利节节下滑的颓势，都是外界关注的焦点，也盼望藉此一窥年底旺季和<SPAN lang=EN-US>2006</SPAN>年景气概况。然而，近来面板景气却似乎呈现忽喜忽忧的诡异情况，着实让人看得<SPAN lang=EN-US>“</SPAN>稀里糊涂<SPAN lang=EN-US>”</SPAN>，面对面板产业的诡异多变，连带着大家也跟着忽上忽下。<SPAN lang=EN-US><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>

) H+ {* T  W$ S& Q<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10&#46;5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%"><FONT face=宋体>面板景气自<SPAN lang=EN-US> 2004</SPAN>年下半年开始一路走滑，业界人士开始思索下一个春天究竟何时再来，眼见年底假期买气即将来临，外界无不多希望放在每年一度的传统旺季，期盼藉此带动液晶销售表现，挹注面板价格可向上扬升。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></P>
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& C0 [+ v+ n+ ]- U! T<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">  <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">  </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">然而近来多家分析机构率先向大伙浇冷水，对于大伙儿殷殷盼望的景气回春时刻表，大多持保留看法，投资机构摩根士丹利（<SPAN lang=EN-US>Morgan Stanley</SPAN>）分析师曾于<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月上旬表示，随着新产量陆续在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2006</SPAN>年顺利量产，加上季节性需求因素影响，预期供给过剩的情况将在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2006</SPAN>年上半年加剧，届时面板价格恐将再下探谷底。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>

; L  M2 {* g* o5 B$ j<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">    </SPAN><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">另据市调机构<SPAN lang=EN-US>DisplaySearch</SPAN>数天前发布的资料显示，<SPAN lang=EN-US>2006</SPAN>年面板业者资本支出仍将持续走高，面板资本支出将高达<SPAN lang=EN-US>93&#46;7</SPAN>亿美元，仅略低于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2005</SPAN>年投资水准，在业者加码投资不手软的情况下，预期面板过剩情况将自<SPAN lang=EN-US>2005</SPAN>年第四季度起逐步扩大，持续至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2006</SPAN>年。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: center" align=center><STRONG><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10&#46;5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">两大龙头厂第三季度财报表现与资本支出差异不大</SPAN></STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10&#46;5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%"><FONT face=宋体><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10&#46;5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%">    </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10&#46;5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%">第三季度由于面板价格走稳、部份产品例如<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>英寸显示器面板及<SPAN lang=EN-US>15&#46;4</SPAN>英寸<SPAN lang=EN-US>Wide </SPAN>笔记本电脑面板价格微幅上扬、面板出货量因需求增加而提升等因素，两大龙头厂<SPAN lang=EN-US>LPL</SPAN>与三星的财报表现，打破自<SPAN lang=EN-US>2004</SPAN>年下半年<SPAN lang=EN-US>TFT LCD</SPAN>产业急转直下，历经近一年的低迷气氛。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></FONT></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">LG&#46;Philips LCD</SPAN><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">（<SPAN lang=EN-US>LPL</SPAN>）与三星在<SPAN lang=EN-US>TFT LCD</SPAN>事业部营收方面，两者季增长率都呈<SPAN lang=EN-US>2</SPAN>位数的高增长，<SPAN lang=EN-US>LPL</SPAN>增长近<SPAN lang=EN-US>20</SPAN>％、三星<SPAN lang=EN-US>26</SPAN>％，年增长率也都高达<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>％以上。营业利益方面，<SPAN lang=EN-US>LPL</SPAN>与三星<SPAN lang=EN-US>TFT LCD</SPAN>事业部季增长率都呈倍数增长，由于致力成本削减等动作，第三季度与第二季度相比较，两者营业利益率增幅都近<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>个百分点，故<SPAN lang=EN-US>LPL</SPAN>与三星<SPAN lang=EN-US>TFT LCD</SPAN>事业部在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2005</SPAN>年第三季度表现并无太大差异。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<DIV><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10&#46;5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">    </SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10&#46;5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">若由资本支出观察<SPAN lang=EN-US>LPL</SPAN>与三星对未来<SPAN lang=EN-US>TFT LCD</SPAN>的投资动作，<SPAN lang=EN-US>LPL</SPAN>计划<SPAN lang=EN-US>2006</SPAN>年资本支出为<SPAN lang=EN-US>3&#46;5</SPAN>～<SPAN lang=EN-US>4&#46;5</SPAN>兆韩元（约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>43</SPAN>亿美元），较<SPAN lang=EN-US>2005</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>4&#46;58</SPAN>兆韩元（约为<SPAN lang=EN-US>43&#46;8</SPAN>亿美元）减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>1&#46;7</SPAN>～<SPAN lang=EN-US>24</SPAN>％，其中<SPAN lang=EN-US>1&#46;7</SPAN>兆韩元（<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>亿美元）用于七代厂，而<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>兆韩元资本支出规划的差距是因<SPAN lang=EN-US>LPL</SPAN>对八代线投资决策尚未确定。三星<SPAN lang=EN-US>TFT LCD</SPAN>事业部预估<SPAN lang=EN-US>2006</SPAN>年资本支出为<SPAN lang=EN-US>23&#46;9</SPAN>亿美元，较<SPAN lang=EN-US>2005</SPAN>年规划的<SPAN lang=EN-US>27&#46;4</SPAN>亿美元减少<SPAN lang=EN-US>13</SPAN>％，主要用于第二条七代线建厂。</SPAN></DIV>
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, r4 Q6 Q; G2 ^# g0 A/ q<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=center><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><IMG src="http://www&#46;33tt&#46;com/upload/images/06/06021401&#46;jpg" border=1></SPAN></SPAN></P>

5 F# N8 i; F' M7 h7 u" ^9 S<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>由于资本支出可视为厂商对于未来产业景气看法的重要指标之一，然而<SPAN lang=EN-US>LPL</SPAN>与三星于<SPAN lang=EN-US>2006</SPAN>年主要规划皆为七代建厂之用。因此，两者在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2005</SPAN>年第三季度财务表现及<SPAN lang=EN-US>2006</SPAN>年资本支出运用并无太大差异，但何以双方对未来面板景气有完全不同的看法？<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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0 M4 w& ]3 g, c<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%"><STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10&#46;5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">LPL</SPAN></STRONG><STRONG><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10&#46;5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">从总体面角度，释出未来产业悲观讯息</SPAN></STRONG><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10&#46;5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>

1 Y0 w) h. ~: b' J; T/ y1 y<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10&#46;5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%">    TFT LCD</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10&#46;5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%">当中比重最大的<SPAN lang=EN-US>LCD</SPAN>显示器面板，预估第四季度价格表现较笔记本电脑和<SPAN lang=EN-US>TV</SPAN>弱，加上<SPAN lang=EN-US>19</SPAN>英寸<SPAN lang=EN-US>LCD</SPAN>显示器面板库存多，据此，<SPAN lang=EN-US>LPL</SPAN>认为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2005</SPAN>年第四季度该公司每平方公尺面板价格将较第三季度持平或走低。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>

9 Q1 @' j( t5 L$ G<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">另外，第四季度面板出货为相对应次年第一季度的市场需求。由于传统淡季的到来，<SPAN lang=EN-US>LPL</SPAN>预估<SPAN lang=EN-US>2006</SPAN>年<SPAN lang=EN-US>IT</SPAN>产品上半年与下半年出货比重为<SPAN lang=EN-US>45</SPAN>：<SPAN lang=EN-US>55</SPAN>，<SPAN lang=EN-US>CE</SPAN>产品为<SPAN lang=EN-US>35</SPAN>：<SPAN lang=EN-US>65</SPAN>或<SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>：<SPAN lang=EN-US>60</SPAN>，故季节性因素是让<SPAN lang=EN-US>LPL</SPAN>看淡<SPAN lang=EN-US>2006</SPAN>年上半面板景气的主因之一。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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6 m4 \( Q$ j2 f. w. n* F! {; {2 [. Q<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">    LPL</SPAN><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">也考虑到油价攀升，影响消费者购买意愿降低的问题。受到油价居高不下的影响，美国<SPAN lang=EN-US>Investor's Business Daily</SPAN>与市调机构<SPAN lang=EN-US>TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence</SPAN>发布<SPAN lang=EN-US>10</SPAN>月经济景气指数为<SPAN lang=EN-US>42</SPAN>、低于<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>，表示市场对整体经济环境持悲观态度，美国是<SPAN lang=EN-US>TFT LCD</SPAN>产品出货较高区域之一，故此项调查结果颇具指标意义。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>

<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">    </SPAN><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">综合以上原因，<SPAN lang=EN-US>LPL</SPAN>认为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2005</SPAN>年第四季度末至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2006</SPAN>年上半年，面板供过于求<SPAN lang=EN-US>5</SPAN>～<SPAN lang=EN-US>9</SPAN>％为合理数字。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>

<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><B><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">三星积极规划高获利产品组合</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">    </SPAN><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">由三星第三季度公布<SPAN lang=EN-US>2005</SPAN>年全球和三星在<SPAN lang=EN-US>TFT LCD</SPAN>各类产品类别出货量和比重来看，可发现以下几个变化。以显示器出货量来看，预估<SPAN lang=EN-US>2005</SPAN>年第四季度全球出货量仍较第三季度增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>200</SPAN>万台、增幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>7</SPAN>％，然而三星规划的第四季度显示器面板出货量却较第三季度减少，幅度为<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>％。三星于第四季度特别增加笔记本电脑和<SPAN lang=EN-US>TV</SPAN>面板出货量，面板片数分别增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>90</SPAN>万和<SPAN lang=EN-US>50</SPAN>万片，与第三季度相较增幅为<SPAN lang=EN-US>21</SPAN>％与<SPAN lang=EN-US>29</SPAN>％；全球笔记本电脑和<SPAN lang=EN-US>TV</SPAN>出货量第四季度则较第三季度增加<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>％与<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>％，由此可知，三星在笔记本电脑及<SPAN lang=EN-US>TV</SPAN>面板出货规划与全球对此两项产品需求相比，高出甚多。</SPAN></P>

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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=center><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"><IMG src="http://www&#46;33tt&#46;com/upload/images/06/06021402&#46;jpg" border=1></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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2 s( d/ z, c. v. \+ K: Q6 X/ f<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>若以产品组合来看，从<SPAN lang=EN-US>2004</SPAN>年上半年至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2005</SPAN>年第三季度，三星于<SPAN lang=EN-US>TFT LCD</SPAN>各项产品面板比重分布的规划，与全球需求比重相当。<SPAN lang=EN-US>2005</SPAN>年第三季度之前，全球对于笔记本电脑需求占<SPAN lang=EN-US>TFT LCD</SPAN>产品比重约三分之一、显示器约<SPAN lang=EN-US>55</SPAN>～<SPAN lang=EN-US>58</SPAN>％、<SPAN lang=EN-US>TV</SPAN>约占<SPAN lang=EN-US>1</SPAN>成左右，三星<SPAN lang=EN-US>TFT LCD</SPAN>面板的产品组合与全球相较，差异并不大。至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2005</SPAN>年第四季度，全球各项<SPAN lang=EN-US>TFT LCD</SPAN>产品比重分布预估仅较第三季度小幅变动，然而三星却大幅减少显示器面板比重至<SPAN lang=EN-US>45</SPAN>％，相对提高笔记本电脑面板比重至近<SPAN lang=EN-US>4</SPAN>成、<SPAN lang=EN-US>TV</SPAN>面板比重也提高至<SPAN lang=EN-US>16</SPAN>％。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>

<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">  <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">  </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">三星为何做上述决策，原因是显示器面板主流尺寸<SPAN lang=EN-US>17</SPAN>英寸价格走跌、不若第三季度价格涨幅达<SPAN lang=EN-US>6</SPAN>％，加上若二线面板厂生产较多显示器面板，将造成显示器面板供过于求疑虑，故三星减少显示器面板生产量。相对地，三星有意加强高获利产品比重，例如超薄及宽屏幕笔记本电脑和大尺寸液晶电视面板。随着三星七代线产量已全部开出，第三季度三星<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:chmetcnv UnitName="英寸" SourceValue="32" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>32</SPAN>英寸</st1:chmetcnv>以上（不含<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="英寸" SourceValue="32" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>32</SPAN>英寸</st1:chmetcnv>）面板出货量占其<SPAN lang=EN-US>TV</SPAN>总面板出货量<SPAN lang=EN-US>56</SPAN>％，预计三星仍会增加<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="英寸" SourceValue="40" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>40</SPAN>英寸</st1:chmetcnv>以上面板出货量，以避开未来各面板厂为达到<st1:chmetcnv UnitName="英寸" SourceValue="32" HasSpace="False" Negative="False" NumberType="1" TCSC="0" w:st="on"><SPAN lang=EN-US>32</SPAN>英寸</st1:chmetcnv><SPAN lang=EN-US>LCD TV </SPAN>“<SPAN lang=EN-US>sweet-spot price</SPAN>”而进行的价格战竞争。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><B><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">意见相左，但两厂同时看好液晶电视市场</SPAN></B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
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# H+ N  G5 m% S( b<P style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%"><SPAN lang=EN-US style="FONT-SIZE: 10&#46;5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%">    LPL</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10&#46;5pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%">的财报出炉后，对景气回春的信心有如再受重击。尽管不难看出<SPAN lang=EN-US>LPL</SPAN>已走出第二季度的亏损窘境，重新站稳脚步，获利情况明显优于前几季。然而，年底向来为全年旺季，<SPAN lang=EN-US>LPL</SPAN>却预估第四季度结束前面板平均售价（<SPAN lang=EN-US>ASP</SPAN>）恐怕仅与第三季度持平或下滑，并认为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2006</SPAN>年的确可能发生产量过剩。虽然<SPAN lang=EN-US>LPL</SPAN>语带保留表示仍待观察，但身为全球属一属二的<SPAN lang=EN-US>TFT LCD</SPAN>面板大厂，其表达的讯息如同投下的炸弹，消息一出，隔天<SPAN lang=EN-US>LPL</SPAN>和其他面板厂股价立即应声倒地。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">  <SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">  </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">有趣的是，日厂夏普同一时间却向外界表达乐观讯息，表示<SPAN lang=EN-US>2005</SPAN>年底前<SPAN lang=EN-US>32</SPAN>英寸以上液晶电视面板供不应求幅度将达<SPAN lang=EN-US>15</SPAN>～<SPAN lang=EN-US>30</SPAN>％，由于夏普在面板市场占有率远落后<SPAN lang=EN-US>LPL</SPAN>，因此市场不免持观望态度。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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) _( f3 U+ I% s  `& \. x<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">    </SPAN></SPAN><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">但相隔两天，另一大厂三星电子（<SPAN lang=EN-US>Samsung Electronics</SPAN>）高层<SPAN lang=EN-US>Woosik Chu</SPAN>指出，眼见液晶电视需求强劲，三星决定调拨部份显示器产量转为生产电视面板。<SPAN lang=EN-US>Woosik Chu</SPAN>并大呼市况愈佳，目前<SPAN lang=EN-US>32</SPAN>英寸液晶电视面板需求强劲，三星开出的产量仅能满足客户订单的一半，随后三星在其他场合上，再次重申液晶电视面板将供不应求，延续至<SPAN lang=EN-US>2006</SPAN>年的说法。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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% y; F/ E# G# }4 H<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">    </SPAN><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">业界人士认为，三星高度乐观的看法，应有对外策略性放话之嫌，因此对三星所言总是半信半疑，不过在夏普意见加持的对照下，似乎可信度又向上爬升几分。只是短短数天，两种截然不同的观点在市场上出现，顿时令人有种精神错乱的感觉。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>

! _" F+ j% N" W6 o2 q1 J5 t, \8 F- f<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">    </SPAN><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">不过，尽管面板景气近来有如洗了忽冷忽热的桑拿浴，直让人丈二金刚摸不着头绪，不过这也显示面板市场仍为有待茁壮的产业，无法如其他科技领域一样大致能捉出景气循环概况，也因此面板业者财报表现与前一年同期相较，往往无法真正看出公司实际表现状况。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>

" I' Q! `7 |. L# t3 T) @2 ^<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">    </SPAN><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">另一方面，大厂对于显示器价格和供需状态持保留态度，却不约而同均将产量重点放在液晶电视需求前景，尤其是<SPAN lang=EN-US>32</SPAN>英寸以上的面板；<SPAN lang=EN-US>LPL</SPAN>液晶电视面板比重已逐季攀升，而三星也要扩增电视用面板产量，不难看出韩国两大业者已将其视为未来获利来源。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>

<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">    </SPAN><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">由于龙头厂商对未来产业展望具景气先行指标意义，然而<SPAN lang=EN-US>LPL</SPAN>与三星却出现相反论调，<SPAN lang=EN-US> LPL</SPAN>以总体经济及整体面板大环境分析，认为未来悲观成份居多；三星虽然认为<SPAN lang=EN-US>2005</SPAN>年第四季度会微幅紧俏，然而较不看好显示器市场，故着重于产品组合规划。或许仍有多数人不认同三星对面板景气的乐观看法，但至少三星已找到提高获利之道，故与其争辩未来面板景气倒底看好或是看衰，到不如寻求何种产品组合，才能提升面板厂商的竞争力。<SPAN lang=EN-US><o:p></o:p></SPAN></SPAN></P>
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* x* K# e$ N1 R6 G) W9 }<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto" align=left><B><SPAN lang=EN-US style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">    </SPAN></B><B><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">笔者认为：</SPAN></B><SPAN style="LINE-HEIGHT: 130%; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10&#46;5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: 宋体">随着六代以上面板厂产量将陆续在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2006</SPAN>年开出，加上国内业者相继加入战局，市场供过于求的情况能否在<SPAN lang=EN-US>2006</SPAN>年解套，确实堪虑。在跌价声不断的激烈市场情况下，眼见韩国对手已抢进液晶电视寻找利基市场，国内业者看来是否已到了战略调整的关键时刻？</SPAN></P></SPAN></SPAN></DIV>